The Future of Bangladesh: Echoes of Uncertainty

 The Future of Bangladesh: Echoes of Uncertainty

Biplab Pal, July 20

(This article is long. However, you might want to save it for later. If my predictions about the next twenty years in this region come true, you should be cautious. Share this to warn others.)

(1) A Peaceful Bangladesh - Is It Just a Dream?

The biggest problem with our mindset is that we grew up in a period of peace. We have matured in a historical time when there have been very few wars globally.

Following the back-to-back world wars, the entire civilization became much more peace-seeking. Those of us who grew up in India have lived through a relatively politically peaceful period. Because democracy has functioned in this region, specifically in India. Power transitions have been peaceful.

The Liberation War of 1971, when Bangladesh gained independence, was a significant war in the post-World War II era. It was the largest war in the past 100 years of India's history. However, it's doubtful whether the firepower used in the 15-day India-Pakistan war of 1971 matches the destruction seen in just a few hours of the World War II Operation Barbarossa.

We have assumed that this peaceful world, where we have democratic rights and our homes and families are protected by the state’s military and police, is the norm.

We think that is how it always is! We think that our families and homes being destroyed by war is unthinkable.

Even though during Partition, Bengalis lost their homes to riots and became refugees. But that was a short-lived past. The younger generations have forgotten this. We assume civilization has progressed to a point where war won't happen. Our lives, property, and everything are secure.

Maps of India and Bangladesh are secure. As if these countries existed thousands of years ago and will remain for thousands of years more!

The pieces on the chessboard of time have not moved for a while. We assume the game is over! There are no more moves!

(2) Can Bangladesh Remain Geographically Independent?

The biggest outcome of World War II was that several countries were created solely by the will of America and the Soviet superpowers. In 1944, they divided their list of subordinate states.

Many countries were born in this peace period. There are many such countries in the world whose independent existence should not have been possible by geographical rules. Examples include Taiwan. The most significant example is East and West Pakistan.

You might say, why the will of superpowers? Wasn't Pakistan a demand of Indian Muslims?

These are incorrect histories taught in Indian and Pakistani schools. There is extensive research on these topics. The real truth can be found in the first volume of my book on the history of Partition. Indian Muslims did not want Pakistan. In the 1937 elections, the Muslim League received only 3% of the vote. When Muslims rejected him, Jinnah was deeply saddened. He retired from politics and moved to London. In Bengal, Muslim votes went to the Krishak Praja Party. In Pakistan, they went to various local parties like the Unionist Party. But why did these two parties merge with the Muslim League? What role did British intelligence play? Why were Muslim leaders who opposed Partition assassinated? No one asked these questions. In India, Muslims were blamed for Partition, and in Pakistan, it was considered a war victory. The actual game played by British intelligence remained hidden.

I have written about this extensive history in my book.

Anyway, look at the geography of Bangladesh. You will see history within that geography.

At birth, Pakistan was a surprising country with 2000 miles of India separating its two parts. Fortunately, India's Prime Minister at the time was Jawaharlal Nehru, an idealist and anti-war advocate. In 1947-48, he had two opportunities to reunite India, but he feared war and bloodshed. As a result, an unnatural geographical country named Pakistan survived. A country where the state language was Urdu, but only 1% of people in East and West Pakistan knew Urdu. Who were the rulers of this country? Elite Muslims from India! They had no connection with the Bengalis, Sindhis, or Pathans of Pakistan. The country survived through military rule and American aid.

But why 1971? Why did it take 24 years to break Pakistan in two? East Pakistan made the security of India's seven northeastern states shaky. If China and East Pakistan captured the 17 km Siliguri Chicken Neck, the seven states would be isolated from India. This Chicken Neck is India's most vulnerable security point. The Indian military knew this, but Nehru did not consider it. His dream was of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai! By the time of the 1962 war, when China was close to capturing the Chicken Neck, Nehru realized that ideals are not believed by anyone. If that part of East Pakistan was not with India, there would be no security for Northeast India. The 1962 Indo-China war and the 1964 India-Pakistan war made it clear that without separating East Pakistan, it would be impossible to hold Northeast India. This was when the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was born. Its first major mission was to create Bangladesh by collaborating with the Awami League. Nehru was an idealist, but Indira Gandhi believed in realpolitik. Thus came 1971. It took Congress 24 years to understand the pain of the Chicken Neck.

Bangladesh became independent. But can a country surrounded by a large one like India maintain an independent foreign policy or military? European history shows that it is not possible. There is no precedent in world history where a country surrounded by a large nation has maintained an independent foreign policy. No large state has ever allowed it. In all cases, such a country either becomes a subordinate state or remains as a protectorate country. For example, the Caribbean or West Indies islands. These countries are subordinate to either America or Britain. Their military protection is the responsibility of America. Venezuela cannot attack Guyana because Guyana is now under American protection. The only exception is Cuba, which was first a Spanish colony, then gained independence with American help and was under American protection until the Communist revolution, after which it came under Soviet protection.

RAW's founder Kao Saheb knew this well. He advised Indira Gandhi to make a deal with Sheikh Mujib to ensure Bangladesh does not maintain a military, relying on India for protection. Indira Gandhi did not prioritize this. It is said that she believed whether Bangladesh had a military or not was the same. Indira Gandhi was confident that Bangladesh would not become an enemy of India for what she had done for it. But Indira was proven wrong by 1975. Anti-India forces blew up Sheikh Mujib and his family. From 1975-1991, Bangladesh was completely under anti-India forces. The bases of Northeast separatist militants were in Bangladesh. Why did Indira and her son Rajiv not intervene? Why did they allow anti-India BNP to grow?

The main reason was India's weak economy. The military was in poor condition due to low dollar reserves. There was no money to buy weapons. There were separatist movements all around. India was busy handling Pakistan, Kashmir, and Punjab. India did not notice that Bangladesh was becoming another Pakistan.

India was alerted during the 2001-2006 BNP rule in Bangladesh. Khaleda Zia openly made Bangladesh a pasture for Pakistan's ISI. Dhaka was becoming the center of every anti-India terror operation.

India was no longer the same India. Due to the 1991 reforms, dollar reserves had increased manifold. BJP had come to power. The Kargil war made India realize it needed to significantly boost its military strength. Therefore, a pro-India government in Bangladesh became a priority for Delhi. First, India supported the 2006-8 caretaker government. Then, due to Delhi’s longstanding relationship with Sheikh Hasina, India decided to strengthen her position and destroy anti-India forces like BNP.

Simultaneously, India's national capitals like Tata, Ambani, and Adani began increasing their investments in Bangladesh. Previously, Indian capital was almost absent in Bangladesh. But now, significant Indian investments are in the country, and Delhi’s Bangladesh policy is determined by Indian industrialists.

The problem is that Bangladeshi Muslims, particularly businessmen, are pro-India because they want to expand their businesses in India. However, the majority of religious Muslims in Bangladesh are intensely anti-India. Therefore, any democratic government in Bangladesh would be intensely anti-India. But Indian and Bangladeshi businessmen will not allow an anti-India government because it would harm their businesses. Additionally, Delhi cannot allow another Pakistan on its doorstep.

So, how can Bangladesh taste democracy? The majority of the country is anti-India. On the other hand, the capital of both countries and Delhi will not let that happen. What is the solution?

(3) The Future of Democracy in Bangladesh

Bangladesh cannot achieve democracy as long as it remains anti-India. Therefore, the ongoing civil conflict will continue, stop, and then resume until everyone in Bangladesh’s politics understands that opposing India is not an option due to geographic realities. This realization will come if India continues to grow stronger militarily and economically. Consequently, the people of Bangladesh will have to accept that there is no future without good relations with India.

An exception might occur if India disintegrates like the Soviet Union. But is that possible? Why did the Soviet Union break apart? It was mainly because it could no longer feed its people, coupled with weak production and a police state.

In India, food prices are rising rapidly due to global warming and the failure to pass agricultural reform bills. In June 2023, food prices increased by 9%, and this June, food prices have risen by 11%. Despite a $24 billion subsidy, costs keep climbing because of increasing agricultural production expenses and a lack of modern technology in Indian agriculture. No military can sustain a country facing a food crisis. Pakistan is on the brink of collapse for similar reasons.

If modern agricultural technology is not introduced, the food crisis in India will worsen. The Reserve Bank of India has stated that food prices are rising at a rate of 7-9%. If this crisis continues, it will be challenging to keep India united. Issues like language policy, ethnic conflicts, and regional politics won’t break India apart; a food crisis will.

Therefore, India also faces significant challenges. If India overcomes these and emerges as a stronger state, Bangladesh will have two options: either all Bangladeshi political parties will become pro-India, allowing the Bangladeshi people to enjoy democracy, or a strong anti-India movement will arise in Bangladesh, which seems to be the direction in which the country is heading. In this scenario, the anti-India movement will quickly turn into an anti-Hindu movement, spreading hatred against Hindus, leading to the destruction of homes, murders, and rapes. In such a case, India will intervene militarily to restore order, similar to the 2006-2008 caretaker model, where a prominent economist, scientist, or professor would become president with military backing, gaining public trust by tackling corruption and helping businesses. A government trusted by the capitals of both India and Bangladesh will be installed.

If a China- or Pakistan-aligned government comes to power, it will be removed through military rebellion, which might even lead to civil war.

West Bengal should prepare for Hindu refugees from Bangladesh. This is the harsh reality now.