Restless Bangladesh! Is the Turbulent Student Movement an Echo of Iran’s Islamic Revolution?

Restless Bangladesh! Is the Turbulent Student Movement an Echo of Iran’s Islamic Revolution?
Biplab Pal, July 18, 2024

Bangladesh's trains and buses have come to a standstill. The number of students injured in clashes and admitted to hospitals is rising. Colleges and universities are closed. The issue at hand is the anti-quota movement.

Sixty percent of government jobs in Bangladesh are reserved. Among this, 30% is reserved for the families of freedom fighters. The students have taken to the streets primarily to abolish this 30% quota!

But is that the real reason, or just a pretext? Is there actually a foreign power trying to use this opportunity to oust Hasina and establish an Islamic Republic of Bangladesh in the style of Iran?

A bit of history and arithmetic makes it clear that the anti-quota movement is just an excuse. In reality, the opposition forces against Hasina are uniting to remove her.

There are only 1.37 million government jobs in Bangladesh. The country's population is 180 million. If you consider the working-age population, less than 1% hold government jobs. If you compare the number of graduates to government job openings, only one in 200 graduates will get a government job. The process is not transparent; bribery and exam leaks are rampant, just like in India.

Salaries in Bangladeshi government jobs are not particularly good. Yet, everyone is desperate for a government job because of corruption and bribery. A peon’s monthly salary might be thirty thousand taka, but you will find their children studying in Canada and owning three large houses. Government jobs in Bangladesh are a guaranteed path to wealth. They share the spoils of looting the country. There are areas in America and Canada where only Bangladeshis live. Their wives and children live there, attending American schools. These areas are called "Begum Para." The husbands are government employees in Bangladesh.

Maybe one in a hundred will get a government job, but it is the surest path to becoming wealthy in Bangladesh. Hence, there will inevitably be fights and clashes over these jobs.

The government had abolished this 30% quota in 2018. Freedom fighters took the matter to the High Court, which reinstated it. The government appealed to the Supreme Court to overturn the ruling. The government is not in favor of maintaining this quota. But according to the constitution, they must wait for the Supreme Court's verdict. Therefore, the anti-government movement lacks logic in this context. Yet, it is happening.

The main reason is the widespread anger against Sheikh Hasina's authoritarianism. Here, I see shadows of Iran.

Under Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran’s economy surpassed England’s and spread across Europe. However, all this wealth was concentrated among the 1-2% loyal to Reza Shah. The remaining 99% did not taste this prosperity. Consequently, the disenfranchised united with the mullahs and the leftists. Together, they ousted Reza Shah. Within a year of the revolution, the mullahs killed all the leftist leaders, taking 100% control in Iran.

Bangladesh is heading in that direction. Reza Shah Pahlavi was under American protection. Iran flourished with American investment and cooperation. Similarly, Hasina is under Indian protection. Under her leadership, Bangladesh has made significant progress in the past 15 years, surpassing India in many areas. But the cream of this progress has been enjoyed by the Awami League’s people. The remaining 99% are left out of this prosperity. One percent of Bangladeshis go to India or Europe for shopping, while the remaining 99% struggle to make ends meet. The anger against Hasina is intense, but all democratic avenues to express this anger are blocked. Bangladesh is sitting on a powder keg, needing just a spark to ignite.

However, Hasina will not face the same situation as Reza Shah Pahlavi, because at that time, the Democrats were in power in America, and they did not support Shah in crushing the movement. In this case, Hasina will receive full cooperation from Modi's government. India cannot risk losing Hasina.

To the progressive Bangladeshis who are joining this anti-Hasina movement with Shibir and Jamaat, I say, read the history of Iran. If Hasina falls, within six months, either you will flee to India, or your bodies will be lying in Bangladesh.

Finally, let me share a conversation between Tajuddin and Sheikh Mujib on August 12, 1975. I heard this from Tajuddin's daughter, Sharmin Ahmed. Tajuddin was then outside the cabinet. He had resigned, unable to tolerate Sheikh Mujib's autocracy. Sheikh Mujib was confused, surrounded by enemies, and people were starving. He wanted to bring Tajuddin back into the cabinet. Tajuddin told him, "Sheikh Saheb, people can tolerate hunger if they have an outlet to vent their anger. You have blocked that path too! Where will their anger go? If they cannot remove you democratically, they will try to remove you with bullets." Needless to say, that's what happened two days later.

Sheikh Hasina should remember that the British created the Indian National Congress as a safety valve for the people’s anger. To sustain autocracy for long, you need an opposition, even if it is a controlled one. Otherwise, unrest will ignite without any issue. No one would have shot Sheikh Mujibur Rahman if he had left a democratic path open to remove him. Learn from your father's death and at least open a safety valve for anger. Beating and killing protesters will only intensify the movement. You know this. You indirectly said this in your address to the nation today. But will your people believe you if you don't create space for opposition?

The anger of the 99% is very dangerous. During a period of peace, Yudhishthira asked Vidura why people rebel against the king. Vidura said, "O King, when the king’s councilors plunder the state’s wealth with the king’s support, and the people remain poor, that inequality makes the subjects rebellious." That is what is happening in Bangladesh.